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Unresolved Trade Issues Biggest Risk Factor for North American Pork Producers
Dr. Steve Meyer - EMI Analytics

Farmscape for November 16, 2017

The Vice President Pork Analysis with EMI Analytics says unresolved trade issues are the biggest risk factor on the horizon for North American pork producers.
As negotiations aimed at modernizing the North American Free Trade Agreement continue, a growing number of agricultural interests in the United States have been coming to the table to encourage the Trump Administration to bring the discussions to a successful conclusion.
Dr. Steve Meyer, the Vice President Pork Analysis with EMI Analytics told those on hand yesterday for Saskatchewan Pork Industry Symposium 2017 in Saskatoon the whole situation with trade agreements and the NAFTA is very much up in the air at this point but, so far, that uncertainty has not been a factor influencing hog markets.

Clip-Dr. Steve Meyer-EMI Analytics:
I think it's just been strictly supply and demand at this point.
Now anybody looking out at expansion plans or that kind of thing in the future may be kind of tapping the break in the United States until they know what happens and Canada will be the same way.
We're your number one customer and so, if something goes awry with NAFTA, then we're going to have some problems here.
If nothing else the product may flow but the prices won't be the same because there'll be some tariffs placed on it and those kinds of things so I would have to think that that would cause some folks to tap on the break but we haven't seen any skid marks out of this thing yet.
That's for darn sure.
As an economist I look at the uncertainty and say that has to be a factor but I don't think we've see much evidence of it yet.
That the biggest risk issue that I see on our horizon at the present time is what happens to the trade agreements.
But our president has had a career of deal making and you don't make a deal by putting your best offer on the table the first shot out of the box and so we hope that that's what this is is negotiation and we'll just have to see how that turns out.

Dr. Meyer says the hope is that the NAFTA issue will be resolved positively for U.S. agriculture and U.S. pork producers but there's no guarantee to that so trade is the biggest risk factor.
For Farmscape.Ca, I'm Bruce Cochrane.


       *Farmscape is a presentation of Sask Pork and Manitoba Pork

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